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Sex of cement industry trend turns over a favourable turn to be able to not appe
From;    Author:Stand originally

Before bureau of statistic of 11 holiday country announced cement industry in August gain data: (1) before interest rate of cement industry wool will is in August 16.0% , on prep above year of the corresponding period (14.6% ) ; Among them interest rate of 6~8 month wool is 17.0% , of month of prep above 3~5 (15.6% ) , also on prep above year of the corresponding period (14.7% ) . (2) before cement industry profit margin will is in August 6.3% , on prep above year of the corresponding period (5.0% ) ; Among them 6~8 month is 7.6% , of month of prep above 3~5 (6.2% ) . Data shows gain of cement manufacturing industry promotes considerably in 6~8 month, yuan Chao of this one result gives the market and us anticipate, the coal price violent wind that understands with everybody rises the common sense that interest rate of the wool below setting drops to deviate from, also appear on the market with cement interest rate of company whole wool glides to deviate from compared to the same period.

Data shows, with the whole nation angle of 6 large area looks: (1) what interest rate of 1~8 month wool drops compared to the same period is northeast and China north area, this two area also are income amplitude drops the largest area, hua Dong, medium south, the wool interest rate of area of southwest, northwest promotes compared to the same period, among them area of southwest, northwest promotes compared to the same period 3.8 with 8.2 percent, promotion range is the biggest; (2) what annulus of interest rate of 6~8 month wool drops than 3~5 month is medium south with southwest, annulus of interest rate of other area wool compares promotion, among them annulus of Hua Dong, northwest compares promotion 3 with 8.8 percent, promotion range is the biggest, gross profit of this two area holds countrywide proportion 36% , 8% , it is annulus of countrywide wool interest rate mainer than promotion impetus; (3) profit margin is compared, northeast area drops compared to the same period, and in south the area is annulus comparing drops.

Area perspective solves compose problem essence

If see settle on narrate data intuitionistic think cement manufacturing industry moves good, appear on the market company outstanding achievement will exceed anticipate, that will appear quite abruptness with history of not thorough understanding. The key of the problem depends on afore-mentioned data deviating from with common sense 2008 not just, the cement that more important is area product considers company value with the industry, have break biased, will solve compose to just be close to the essence of the problem more probably with area.

Pass our analysis, we think interest rate of wool of cement line of business promotes main reason to include below when: (1) no matter be,still be annulus all shows than data compared to the same period, wool interest rate promotes gross profit of province of focal point of share of main hang on to lead promotion, and the cause that interest rate of wool of province of this kinds of key promotes a reason to be able to explain entire industry gross profit leads promotion greatly; (2) the deep-seated cause that wool interest rate promotes depends on getting last year or a large number of this year washing out backward produce can, the earthquake perhaps is restricted a variety of element influences such as report, make existing cement is produced can develop inadequacy, and mixed last year at the same time produce this year can put in pressure small, demand is had no appear to drop considerably, supply and demand officials post so that wool interest rate obtains to promote considerably; (3) certain area, demand of construction of infrastructure of such as northwest is exuberant, and produce can put in price of not seasonable, coal rises be less than the whole nation to go up, cause wool interest rate to promote; (4) additional, company of a lot of cement realizes go up the miserable intense of round of industry conformity, more intense to be restricted to produce support value consciousness, promote price consciousness to increase gradually in coordination.
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