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Cement industry: Of investment and FAI deviating from is Jian of the biggest ris
From;    Author:Stand originally

Cement investment and investment of town fixed assets deviate from

1-8 month, town fixed assets invests 8.492 trillion yuan, grow 27.4% compared to the same period, after deducting price element, add actually fast about 18% , relatively the corresponding period had apparent slow down last year. Fixed assets investment drops bring about cement demand slow down, crop of cement of 1-8 month whole nation 880 million tons, grow 3.63% compared to the same period, increasing ratio last year slow down of the corresponding period 7.3 percent.

1-7 month, investment of cement fixed assets finishs the forehead 53.1 billion yuan, grow 68.46% compared to the same period, investment of fixed assets of predicting annual cement will achieve 100 billion yuan, add cement newly to produce can exceed 250 million tons. Cement investment deviates from with what town fixed assets invests will make trade supply demand relations is improved hard, it is the biggest risk that the industry grows.

Coal price and cement price double fall

Coal price by 685 the middle ten days of a month is highest in July yuan / ton drop reach 570 current yuan / ton, drop extent exceeds 16% , cement makes cost pressure alleviate somewhat. Average price will be cement of the first ten days of a month in September 380.17 yuan / ton, annulus drops than small August 0.9 percent, this is this year since cement price first annulus drops than appearing. Cement price callback alleviates somewhat besides cost pressure outside, demand puts alleviation competition is intense it is main factor.

Region market is analysed and invest strategy

New increase production of region of and other places of Tibet, Shandong, Gansu Province, Ningxia can grow under backward produce can fall into disuse, cement produces can negative growth, the cement supply demand relations of these areas predicts to will get be amelioratived effectively. Cement of area of and other places of look forward to of ferry of Jiangsu, Beijing, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangxi is produced can grow under demand, supply demand relations also will get certain level is improved. Area of and other places of Guizhou, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang invests overheat, cement is produced can grow ambitious grow at demand, predicting industry boom be issued to lower levels. Area of and other places of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hunan, Henan, Liaoning also exists certain investment overheat.

Key company

Horse race is industrial: 2008-2010 year EPS is 0.96 yuan, 1.28 yuan, 1.76 yuan, buy.

Ji Dong cement: 2008-2010 year EPS is 0.42 yuan, 0.83 yuan, 1.27 yuan, buy.

Tower card group: 2008-2010 year EPS is 0.57 yuan, 0.7 yuan, 0.87 yuan, buy.

Risk clew

Slow down in demand, cement invests overheat, backward produce can exit not in time, coal rises in price.

The industry runs survey

Investment of town fixed assets and cement investment deviate from
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