Cement industry: Be faced with risk of bigger slow down in demand to enter cycle - China Cement Net Business
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Cement industry: Be faced with risk of bigger slow down in demand to enter cycle
From;    Author:Stand originally

Our main viewpoint is: Investment of the investment of fixed assets of industry of 3 chunk real-estate that fixed assets invests, manufacturing industry fixed assets and infrastructure construction investment all are faced with glide risk, because this cement industry faces the risk of bigger slow down in demand, the industry enters cycle of be issued to lower levels.

Cement industry occurrence demand glides quantity of production and marketing of clue cement industry is added fast occurrence annulus is compared drop. Company of cement of connection of 266 keys of countrywide will achieve cement yield August 4, 6.38 million tons, grow 6.1% compared to the same period; Implementation cement sales volume 4, 7.35 million tons, grow 7.1% compared to the same period. Quantity of produce and sale is added fast respectively relatively will drop July 7.5 percent and 5.5 percent, drop extent is being shown. Quantity of produce and sale will be added August fast because Beijing is circumjacent during the Olympic Games,dropping reason is partly area stop production of 23 cement company 2 months, volume of produce and sale of China north area drops compared to the same period apparent; Also reflect the clue that gives the slow down in demand inside countrywide limits at the same time.

Trade demand is faced with drop further risk we think, fixed assets investment is added fast will glide, cement line of business will face the risk of slow down in demand.

Will look from structure of fixed assets investment, the proportion that investment of real-estate industry fixed assets holds investment of total fixed assets is in about 24%-28% ; Investment of manufacturing industry fixed assets occupies the scale of total investment to be 29%-32% ; Infrastructure is built (include electric power, light gas, irrigation works, foundation service, carry wait for an industry) the proportion that investment holds total investment is in about 23%-28% . Basically the proportion that 3 large trades hold in fixed assets investment is each 1/3.

Look from real-estate industry above all, we think, bearing of real-estate trade situation faces the risk that glides further, land agent financing presents aggravate aggravation trend, investment of estate fixed assets shows downtrend. From the point of the data that already published, end by August, investment of fixed assets of town real estate is added compared to the same period fast for 30.5% , successive already two months add fast annulus than dropping, be apart from the high point of 35.1% will drop June 4.6 percent. Downtrend of investment of estate fixed assets already showed clue first.

From the point of the fund data of real estate, the financing area of land agent shows exasperate trend. Newest estate develops the data of financing source to show, will come in May capital specified number will be added compared to the same period in August fast relatively the corresponding period put delay last year, and successive 4 months are added compared to the same period fast drop, to August of capital specified number add compared to the same period fast for 20.5% , among them enterprise or business forehead of unit own reserves and funds raised by oneself frontal annulus is rapidder than dropping. A kind of may be land agent financing area that have oneself and fundses raised by oneself to drop quickly is worsening further, own reserves and funds raised by oneself to had begun to be afterwards hard; Because the market is slow-moving,another kind may be, the land agent after early days investment is finished begins to increase investment energetically no longer. No matter be which kinds of result, fixed to estate investment and investment of whole society fixed assets are very negative. Additional, accompany domestic loan amount and specified number of other channel capital to be added compared to the same period fast drop continuously, the financing area state of land agent returns can farther aggravation. Accordingly, we think investment of real estate fixed assets is added fast descendent trend is basic establish.
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