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Cement crop is added fast glide cost is driven rise in price
From;    Author:Stand originally

As we have learned, close crop adds paragraph of time cement fast glide, cost is driven rise in price. Statistical data shows, 1-8 month whole nation achieves cement yield 883 million tons, grow 4.33 % compared to the same period, add fast drop 6.67 percent, basically suffer Olympic Games stop production and demand to glide wait for negative factor influence; The cost that rises in price in coal is driven below, off-season in August cement rises in price, cement of class of P.o42.5 of key connection business leaves factory contain tax all price rises compared to the same period 44.98 yuan / ton (amplitude 15.55 % ) .

Cement output grows quickly but add fast put delay

Show according to data, month of 8 years of 1-8, the whole nation achieves cement yield 883 million tons, grow 4.33 % compared to the same period, add fast drop compared to the same period 6.67 percent. Only in August month achieves cement yield 119 million tons, grow 0.28 % compared to the same period, add fast drop compared to the same period 8.82 percent.

Cement crop is added fast put delay, suffer the effect of the following element: (1) during the Olympic Games stop production of company of cement of part of China north area, cause output of this area cement will fall compared to the same period August 22.17 % ; (2) the carriage difficulty that the calamity element such as Sichuan earthquake, southern flood causes affects cement crop, and large-scale calamity rebuilds to still be in start level, had not come to increasing of cement demand considerably. (3) demand adds fast put delay: Fixed assets investment is added actually fast put delay apparently (see later development is analysed) , cause cement demand to add fast glide. Predict, after industry of the construction after the Olympic Games ends drives time limit for a project, calamity, rebuild start wait for an element to will be pulled change area cement requirement.

Cost drives next prices to promote steadily

From the key cement of class of connection business P.o42.5 leaves factory contain tax all in light of valence, in August ton cement price rises compared to the same period 44.98 yuan (amplitude 15.55 % ) , compare the price will rise in July (ton cement price rises compared to the same period 37.4 yuan, amplitude 12.91 % ) show rise quickly trend; Annulus comparing will go up in August a 2.21 % , summary prep above will go up in July a 1.76 % . The tradition that 7-8 month belongs to cement to sell is off-season, of price of cement of these two months will not go up instead, can explain what rise in price for coal to drive (actor of Great Harmony of island of emperor of the Qin Dynasty mixes smooth storehouse price go up inside two months for 12.28 % ) .

In light of the data of price of smooth storehouse of island of emperor of the Qin Dynasty that dogs from concerned expert, coal price is entered from May rise quickly level, 5-7 month in all 3 months accumulative total goes up a more than 60 % ; Coal price is exalted August callback, price annulus will compare small fall after a rise September, at present price photograph falls than maximum price an about 10 % . Concerned expert and coal analyst are communicated, think our country enters period of tall coal price, although the coal after the Olympic Games supplies a likelihood to increase somewhat (small coal or part are unlocked) , but four quarters enter demand of heating period coal exuberant, predicting coal price will maintain perch. Coal cost occupies cement to produce the 35 % left and right sides of totle drilling cost, accordingly the perch of coal price moves to produce those who increase cement cost; And below the case that puts delay in downstream demand, the ability of cost marry again of cement industry gets test.
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